The quantity of feed barley sold at April 1 was 52%, with 69% of this stored onfarm. For feed wheat, 54% has been sold but 85% was stored on farm as at April 1.
There is 174,000 tonnes of unsold feed wheat in the market including 11,600t of carry-over stock from 2015, more than three times the unsold feed wheat at this time last year.
There is also 174,000t of unsold feed barley in the market, including 30,400t of carry-over stock. This is about 100,000t higher than the amount left unsold last year.
The carry-over stock of barley represents 8% of the barley harvested in 2015. At the same time in 2015, the percentage of feed barley carried-over from the 2014 harvest was just 0.2%.
The amount of carry-over grain from the 2015 harvest that has been sold and stored onfarm is high compared to last year – that is, grain from the 2014 harvest stored onfarm at April 1, 2015 – but is not unusually high compared to previous years.
The amount of carry-over and unsold stock is not unexpected. Arable farmers have had difficulty making sales of feed crops for some months now, given the downturn in the dairy sector.
Estimated total tonnage of feed barley this harvest was down 22% compared to 2015. The feed barley yield was also down on last year, at 6.6t/ha.
This isn’t quite as poor as in 2010 and 2011, when yields were 5.7t/ha and 5.4t/ha respectively.
The poorer yield reflects that some barley was cut for silage. Feed wheat yields were improved slightly on last year, with a yield of 8.5t/ha.
The area intended to be sown for autumn-winter feed barley is predicted to be down 12,700ha, a 47% decrease from the area sown last year.
The area of autumn-winter feed wheat to be sown is predicted to increase by 6% (2000ha). Autumn sowing is now mostly completed for cereals.
There has been less autumn barley planted than usual, though it’s possible the AIMI estimate is a little on the low side.
The outlook for the feed and grain sector is much the same as dairy, given how closely aligned the two industries are.
It’s likely to be a slow recovery and little movement is expected in feed prices for the time being.
Until dairy farmers’ financial positions improve they will not be feeding any more grain than absolutely necessary.
