Fonterra's forecast is ahead of Australia's dominant milk processor Murray Goulburn, which this week announced an opening forecast of a net A$4.31/kg MS for the 2016-17 season, which it expects to rise to A$4.80/kg MS by the end of the season.
Fonterra is obliged to at least match Murray Goulburn’s price under its Bonlac supply agreement.
Dairy companies have been cutting payments to their farmer suppliers as they grapple with weak dairy prices that have remained lower for longer than expected as global supply continues to exceed demand.
Fonterra said its forecast is based on the Australian dollar holding at about 74 United States cents and reflects the revenue it expects to earn on products it manufactures.
“Our farmgate milk price in Australia is also impacted by global dairy markets given our mix of domestic and export sales," Fonterra chief operating officer of velocity and innovation Judith Swales said in a statement.
“While we are still seeing an imbalance between global milk supply and demand there are signs in key milk producing areas of a slowdown in production and increased imports into key markets such as China, Asia and Latin America.
“This supports our view of a recovery in global prices as we move through the season.”
Individual suppliers’ milk prices will vary across regions, depending on the individual farm’s milk profile, regional production factors, milk quality and farm management systems, the company said.
Fonterra's Australian business has underperformed for several years in an environment of fierce competition for milk supply and overcapacity in dairy production, although Swales said in November that the unit should become profitable in the next year.
The co-operative is focused on building on its ingredients strengths by making Australia Fonterra’s global hub for cheese, whey, and nutritionals, complementing its consumer and foodservice businesses.
"We are focusing on the future, and are continuing to build a strong Australian business that is here for the long term,” Swales said in the latest statement.
Units of the Fonterra Shareholders' Fund last traded at $5.41 and have slid 9.7% this year.
