Friday, March 29, 2024

Fishing for certainty

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What a season it’s been so far. It started out with the very best of intentions, all planned around $6/kg milksolids (MS) and finished a completely changed model as the milk price just continued to fall. Somehow it felt wrong from the start so our number crunching on Farmax Dairy started early. As the price continued to fall it became clear that maize would have to go. This was disappointing because on the experimental 10ha crop block we had planted a lupin crop to boost nitrogen levels before the new-season maize planting. We were going to use a roller crimper to create a ground cover weed mat through which we would direct drill the next maize crop – go to bit.ly/1tiLmqR to watch an example. For both cost cutting and environmental purposes no pre- or post-emergent spray would need to be applied, while the lupins provided the nitrogen for the next crop (about 1200kg N/ha equivalent). Instead I slashed the lupins, rotary hoe’d and still without sprays, planted a herbal lay winter crop per hectare of:
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  • Regal kale – 3kg
  • Crackerjack triticale – 5kg
  • Milton oats – 5kg
  • Forage pea – 5kg
  • Tahora II white clover – 1kg
  • Legacy white clover – 1kg
  • Relish red clover –1.5kg
  • Spitfire rape – 1.5kg
  • Tonic plantain – 0.5kg
  • Tama ryegrass – 5kg
  • Rely AR37 grass – 5kg

Fat hen competed with the crop initially but on June 3 PGG Wrightson yielded the crop at 12,100kg drymatter/ha. The kale is now dominant but what is significant is the amount of seedlings waiting to germinate in spring.

While the kale yield may be reduced by about two tonnes through competition, we are hoping this residual seed will fill the gap from July-August to late October, a time when the ground usually remains fallow. Given that we get an extra two tonnes of drymatter the exercise will have been worthwhile.

We have always milked once a day from calving, and again Farmax showed us that all-grass farming at $4/kg MS gave the greatest net return. Production is not important, profit is!

We lost six cows just before calving in the first herd because of glycosinolate poisoning caused by, I believe, our winter swedes running up to stalk in July-August. This also caused a 10% reduction in milk yield.

The second herd on winter kale were 10% ahead of last year confirming there was a swede problem in the first herd.

We have always milked once a day from calving, and again Farmax showed us that all-grass farming at $4/kg MS gave the greatest net return. Production is not important, profit is! We sowed Italian ryegrass-clover over all our cropped area and doubled the grass silage so next season will be our first all-grass year.

We have made a profit albeit small and after living expenses, cashflows are still positive. I made sure this year that we all, staff included, got off the farm for a good break. With pasture growth exceptional this autumn it was time to relax away from the pressure of the farm.

We spent three weeks sailing around the Hauraki Gulf. The whole time there was no wind, the sea was like glass and the fishing fantastic, while the wineries on Waiheke looked after us very well indeed.

I returned home to go to the DairyNZ Farmers’ Forum at Mystery Creek, an extremely well-attended event. To summarise: we live in a changing world where no one actually knows the time or extent to which the milksolids price will improve.

There will be more of the same this coming year. In my opinion there are too many unusual things happening in global financial markets (such as negative interest rates) along with China’s fluctuating economy, wars and political change to make any sensible predictions at all.

Check out a summary of the forum at bit.ly/1TOkPgv. Zespri chief operating officer Simon Limmer’s presentation on resilience and recovery in the kiwifruit industry following 2010’s Psa outbreak was extremely relevant for anyone needing help in the dairy industry – go to bit.ly/1Yapid0.

Of most interest to me was the address by Melissa Clark Reynolds – go to bit.ly/1Pi4fOP. I had not realised that Kodak had gone broke because someone invented an iPhone and that the new Generation Y, with a tap on the side of their very own beehive may cause the honey industry to dissolve, or should I say melt.

Finally, do you think synthetic milk production will ever become a reality?

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