Wednesday, May 8, 2024

Europe’s milk racing ahead

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European Union dairy production has continued to increase, even as output eased in other major exporting countries in response to low milk prices, Fonterra says in its June Global Dairy Update. Milk production in the EU rose 7% in March compared with March last year, taking the annual growth to 4%.
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That contrasted with a 1% decline in production in both New Zealand and Australia in the year to April 31, Fonterra said.

In the United States, production advanced 1%in the year to April 31, though it was exporting less because of a pick-up in domestic demand.

Primary Industries Minister Nathan Guy said last week the world was "awash with milk" amid softer demand from China and oil-producing countries and as global supply was bolstered by a Russian ban on European Union products and the lifting of European production after quotas were removed.

The Ministry for Primary Industries said dairy prices still faced headwinds from increased milk production in the EU and that was expected to keep prices low for the rest of 2016.

EU production was stabilising at higher levels but any global price increases were likely to be met with increased EU production and a run-down of its inventories, meaning a significant export recovery wasn't forecast until the 2017-18 season.

"Milk production has been strong in the EU," Fonterra said.

"This is despite local milk prices continuing to decrease and being below the same period last year."

The EU Commission had forecast the region's milk deliveries would increase 1.4% in calendar 2016.

In New Zealand, Fonterra said its milk collection in the 2015-16 season to May 31 fell 3% to 1.566 billion kilograms of milksolids.

In Australia, Fonterra's milk collection in the 11 months to May 31 was down 3% to 115 million kgMS.

It forecast its Australasian collection would fall 3% to 1.523 billion kg MS this season.

EU dairy export volumes increased 16% in February, compared with the same month a year earlier. On an annual basis, the region's exports gained 11% to 476,000 tonnes.

In contrast, NZ export volumes in the year through April advanced 3% to 87,000t and Australia's volumes gained 6% to 41,000t in the year through March while US exports declined 6% to 132,000t in the year through March.

Meanwhile, China, Asia and Latin America continued to see strong growth in dairy imports while the Middle East and African imports softened, Fonterra said.

China increased imports 9% in April compared with the same month a year earlier, driven by an 80% jump in fluid and fresh dairy imports.

On an annual basis, Chinese dairy imports in the 12 months through April gained 18% to 333,000t as fluid and fresh dairy soared 60%, infant formula jumped 48% and whey powder increased 19%.

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