DairyNZ regional consulting officers and dairy farmers themselves say tight times and some animal disease issues constrained their use of beef genetics over dairy cows during the last mating.
LIC reported some interesting trends in artificial breeding (AB) but none that would flood the saleyards with beefies and provide a surge in export beef tonnages in two or three years.
Dairy farmers were tempted to supplement their dismal milk payouts with saleable beef crosses but their options were limited by costs and higher dairy priorities.
LIC sales innovation manager David Chin said sales of beef semen straws doubled last spring but the total was still very small compared with dairy AB.
"Our farmer clients are being innovative but the larger trends were towards higher-quality dairy genetics, short-gestation products and all-AB mating to add efficiency.
"Bulls are expensive to buy, especially beef bulls now that the beef schedule is high, they eat a lot of grass and carry health and safety risks."
Chin said the increased use of LIC beef semen was a trend that replaced the emphasis on Holstein Friesian heifers for live export and for stocking new conversion farms in recent years.
As a farmer co-operative LIC had tried to keep AB costs under control with higher shareholder discounts and new products like short-gestation genetics to extend days in milk.
"Overall AB sales were down last mating season but in line with the reduction in cow numbers nationally," Chin said.
DairyNZ senior economist Matthew Newman said the size of the average dairy milking herd fell by 14 from 419 to 405 in the 12 months between the 2014 peak-in-milk to the 2015, the first ever recorded drop in modern times.
Nationally that meant 4.8 million cows expected to be milking this November, down 100,000 from the 2015 peak, which was in turn down 120,000 from the recent high of 5.02m in 2014.
The herd shrinkage was reflected in the cull cow numbers, up 250,000 this meat industry year to date compared with two years ago.
Beef cattle numbers had fallen by 1m in the decade to 2015 as more drystock farmers turned to dairy grazers but Newman expected that trend to reverse now.
"Dairy farmers are bringing their replacements back home so the dairy grazers have capacity to bring on more dairy-beef cattle and push up prices," he said.
But through all this change bobby calf kill numbers had remained steady as had all beef cattle kill numbers except cull cows, he said.
Dairy farmers might keep and rear more calves this year to take advantage of higher store stock prices but growing conditions and feed demand from milkers would take precedence, Newman predicted.
His Beef + Lamb NZ counterpart Andrew Burtt said his economist colleagues estimated about 500,000 calves came across from dairy farms to beef farms each year and were mostly grown out to slaughter bulls within two years, whereas a high percentage of male calves born on beef farms were steered.
About 30% of the annual heifer kill was contributed by the dairy industry, he said.
The annual cull cow kill was 85% dairy and 15% beef and the 2m annual calf kill was all dairy origin.
DairyNZ consultancy regional leaders reported good pasture covers and soil moisture levels from all parts of the country save north Canterbury and southern Wairapapa, plus a delayed soil moisture recharge in southern Taranaki and at Taieri in Otago.
"We are in great condition compared with this time in previous years although storms can come at any time," Richard Kyte in Southland said.
Planned start of calving wouldn't be till August 10 and cow condition was good.
"Cow numbers are down and dairy farm conversion activity has slowed right down to just a handful presently," he said.
At the other end of the country Chris Neill said Northland's abundance of kikuyu pasture following a very good autumn had now been frosted and drowned, causing considerable impact on pasture budgets for late winter and early spring.
Sub-clinical facial eczema was present on many farms but Neill did not expect it to adversely affect calving outcomes.
Anecdotally, northern dairy farmers used less expensive semen last mating and put lower quality cows to beef bulls or beef semen.
That might result in more dairy-beef calves and weaners going to saleyards, though cash-strapped dairy farmers could rear more themselves to take advantage of higher beef prices.
Neill had heard of several farmers setting themselves up for split calving in future, autumn and spring, to access the winter milk premium (now $1.90/kg).
In the north that could be done by hanging on to non-pregnant cows and mating them early so as to calve next autumn.
Canterbury had a wonderful winter so far and cow condition was good, plus the mood of dairy farmers was improved when not wet and cold, DairyNZ regional team leader Virginia Serra said.
Some farms milked into June and many used fodder beet for the first time.
"We are in good shape but the weather can change quickly," she said.
Waikato team leader Phil Irvine said he had heard of more abortion outbreaks this year because of nitrate poisoning and facial eczema though regional veterinarians didn't think the incidence was out of the ordinary.
Lighter cows could be carrying sub-clinical FE effects but cow condition overall was good in the leading dairy province, he said.
Taranaki farmers had separated FE-affected cows for early culling or once-a-day milking, local team leader Katrina Knowles said.
Condition scores were good all over the province, even in the south where conditions had been dry until recently.
Knowles thought the extent of calf rearing for supplementary income would depend on stocking rates and cow demands on available pasture.
