Thursday, April 25, 2024

Lower dollar helps export values

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A fall in the value of the New Zealand dollar saved beef and veal returns from a bigger drop in value during the first half of the meat export year.
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Lamb returns were slightly higher than a year earlier, helped more by the weaker kiwi than in the previous period and also higher volumes from an earlier processing season. 

Chilled lamb volumes were up by 12% and accounted for 29% of lamb shipments, up from 27% last season. 

Frozen lamb exports were 3.6% lower.

Beef returns exceeded those for lamb again, after doing so for the first time last year, but again lamb and mutton returns added together were higher, according to Beef + Lamb NZ figures.

The half year reporting period was clearly traded in two parts, with big increases in volumes in the October to December period because of stock being taken in early for processing and slowing sharply in the January to March period.

For lambs, in particular, that meant more than half the expected annual volumes would have been shipped in the first half of the year, taking advantage of the lower dollar, with less to come in the April to June balance of the year with the currency, so far at least, back at a higher level, B+LNZ chief economist Andrew Burtt said.

His figures showed about 59% of total lamb shipments were likely to have been moved in the first half of the year, up from 51% at the corresponding time last year. 

For beef, it was expected 49% of the total would have gone in the first half, up from 47%.

Beef volumes for the six months were 204,200 tonnes, down from 212,142t at the corresponding time last season, despite a 15% lift in first quarter shipments. 

Beef returns fell 6% to $1.5 billion from $1.6b with the per-tonne figure being $7350, down from $7540.

Chilled exports volumes remained steady over the six months and their value rose 11% on a year earlier. 

The second quarter fall-off in volumes was all in frozen product and total returns were down 4.3%, allowing for the depreciation of the dollar.

In United States dollar terms, chilled returns were down 3.9% and frozen returns down 18%.

The US was the biggest beef market and shipments were down 15% overall, most of that occurring in the January to March period. 

Though beef prices were off their highs, they were still well above historical levels, Burtt said.

Volumes into north Asia rose by more than 50% in the first quarter alone and after slowing were still ahead by 24%, mostly to China but also Taiwan. Exports to Japan were down.

Lamb export returns for the six months to March 31 were $1.38b, a 1.5% gain on the previous season. Volumes were well up in the October to December period but lower from January to March.

Shipments to north Asia rose 11% and to the European Union by 7.2%, partly offset by a 30% fall in shipments to the Middle East. 

Total volumes were 162,700t up from 153,687t.

The weaker NZ dollar certainly helped returns with the average value of lamb exports being 4.3% lower in NZ$ terms but down 14% in international prices. The per-tonne value was $8500, down from $8870. 

European prices for frozen lamb were subdued, especially in the UK where more domestic supply was in the market because of sterling’s strength making exports to the Continent less competitive, Burtt said.

Mutton shipments remained pretty much unchanged, at 51,200t from just under 51,000t a year earlier.  

Exports to the biggest market, north Asia, were down 9.4% but shipments to the EU, south Asia and North America were all higher.

The average value of mutton exports fell 10% on a year earlier, with decreases in all regions.

Total mutton returns were $246 million, down from $273m. The mutton value per tonne fell to $4800 from $5350.

Together, lamb and mutton exports returns were $1.629b, down from $1.635b a year earlier.

For the major rural export currencies, B+LNZ’s average exchange rate forecasts for the current year are: US$0.63 (compared to 0.73 in 2014-15), stg0.42 (from 0.47) and E0.60 from 0.64. 

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