In its State of Food and Agriculture report for 2016 the gloomy prediction by director general Jose Graziano was for the uncertainties of the human hunting-gatherer era to return, given the impacts climate change would have on harvests.
With that uncertainty came the volatility now being experienced in food prices, something Graziano said everyone was paying for, not only those suffering from droughts.
The most affected regions in coming years would be sub-Saharan Africa and southeast Asia.
For New Zealand the report predicted rises in wheat yields but declines in animal production by the 2030s, with productivity gains from CO2 fertilisation in plantation forests offset by rising temperatures and reduced rainfall.
Graziano maintained 2016 was the year re-structuring agricultural systems had to start, particularly given the Paris Accord had now been ratified and global sustainable development goals had been agreed last year.
Most of the world’s farmers were smallholders so emphasis had to be put on supporting them to adjust their practices to reduce climate change.
It was estimated the world had half a billion smallholder families who were also regarded as the most exposed to the risks of climate change’s negative impacts.
Some mitigation methods were already in play around the world. They included the use of nitrogen-efficient, heat-tolerant crops, no-tillage practices and more integrated soil management to cut topsoil loss and erosion.
The report estimated widespread adoption of nitrogen-efficient practices alone could reduce the risk of under-nourishment for more than 100 million people.
Combining nitrogen-efficient crops, no-till practices, heat-tolerant crops and precision agriculture would collectively reduce the proportion of the population at risk of hunger by 33%.
Emission losses could also be lowered through alternative practices, including not flooding rice paddies. That alone would slash methane emissions by 45% and livestock sector emissions could be cut by more than 40% with more efficient practices.
While the impact of climate change was now being realised on crop yields, it was expected to exacerbate and broaden by 2030 to include more than the sub-Saharan and Asian regions.
Encouragingly, the report pointed to the development of “climate finance” for climate change adaptation and mitigation.
While still relatively small it was seen as a catalyst to leverage larger public and private investment inputs to mitigation and prevention.
However, even with widespread adoption of climate-smart, sustainable agriculture practices the industry might still fall short of meeting global climate targets.
Major adjustments to areas like food waste, which accounted for a third of all food produced, had to be made.
• MORE: To read the full report click go to www.fao.org/3/a-i6132e.pdf
