The Ministry for Primary Industries’ recently-released Situation and Outlook for Primary Industries 2016 report shows arable export revenue is expected to total $202 million, which is up by $24m from last year.
Export revenue is expected to continue growing from this estimate to $243m by 2020, driven by steady growth in export volumes and prices.
A worldwide boom in baby leaf salad consumption is driving demand for spinach, beet and leafy brassica seeds such as kale, and carrot and radish seed continue to be industry mainstays.
NZ’s climate and reputation for dependable, high-quality seed production also continues to attract international seed companies.
Asian demand for brassica seed – particularly from South Korea, Japan, Thailand and Vietnam – remains strong although access to China is still embargoed while a review is undertaken to allay concerns over blackleg disease.
Blackleg fungus was found in a NZ brassica seed export consignment to China in 2011.
The domestic grain market has fallen because of the dairy downturn as well as abundant international supply.
Ryegrass seed contracts are down on previous years because of high stocks held in Europe and exporters don’t expect an improvement in 2016-17.
The domestic market for ryegrass is also soft as farmers limit spending on pasture renewal in response to the dairy price decline.
The outlook for clover seed exports is positive with a shortage of white clover seed in Europe and increasing demand in China.
NZ exports little grain, with most used for domestic stock feed. Prices for most grains are on a downward trend for 2016, with prices about $100 per-tonne lower than last year.
The Foundation for Arable Research’s Arable Industry Marketing Initiative Survey estimates that as of April 1 this year, 48% (146,600 tonnes) of the 2016 feed barley harvest and 46% (162,389t) of the feed wheat harvest remains unsold.
Storage has also become an issue with unsold grain carry-over stocks from 2015 and a significant amount of sold grain still stored onfarm.
If ratified the Trans-Pacific Partnership will provide export growth opportunities to the arable sector because NZ farmers would stand to gain access to a wider variety of higher-yielding seeds.
Low-level tariffs, such as those on ryegrass and clover seed exports to the United States, would also be removed if TTP became a reality.
Top-10-arable-export-markets-by-value-+-Arable-export-values.pdf
