Friday, March 29, 2024

Climate measures need to speed up

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Changes in climate will have a long-term effect on future primary production and the sector needs to adopt strategies to deal with them more quickly, a new report says. A research partnership between Our Land and Water and the Deep South Challenge, Changing with our Climate aims to help scientists, regional councils and industry bodies understand the potential impacts of climate change on pastoral, arable and horticultural farm systems and identify appropriate adaptation measures.
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The research will provide data to underpin tools being developed to help landowners understand and visualise alternative land use opportunities.

Landcare Research research priority leader Anne-Gaelle Ausseil hopes the research will encourage long-term strategic adaptation, such as diversifying cultivars, shifting sowing dates and planning more shade and shelter.

The two-year study, based on climate change predictions made by Niwa, looked at the impact of overall climate trends but couldn’t calculate the impact of all risks. 

“Extreme events like hailstorms and damage from insects are also likely to increase under climate change conditions but it is difficult to quantify the additional measures needed to respond to these events,” Ausseil said.

The research suggests pastoral farms will have a small increase in pasture production in many parts of the country during the next 80 years, though that will vary by location, because of increased carbon dioxide encouraging plant growth but with a shift to wetter springs and away from drier late summers. 

An increased risk of water shortages, especially in regions such as Waikato and Hawke’s Bay, will put pressure on freshwater ecosystems and require more efficient irrigation. 

For pasture and arable crops there is a trend towards higher water limitations in spring and summer, especially in Hawke’s Bay. The variability of water demand in Southland is predicted to increase.

Nitrate leaching will be higher and more variable with more extreme rain leading to more frequent nitrate leaching. The most noticeable increase modelled was in a Southland case study where annual leaching increases significantly with more spring rain and more frequent extreme rain but more research is needed to confirm the trend. 

Higher temperatures will pose a greater risk to livestock production with more days where heat stress might occur. More shade and shelter will be needed for stock welfare.

In the arable sector climate change is likely have minimal effects on maize yields, except for a slight increase in Hawke’s Bay production if crop management is adapted to reduce risks of yield loss. For example, maize crops could be sown earlier in spring to minimise a negative effect on yields caused by faster reproductive development that shortens the crop cycle.

Earlier sowing dates will enable the use of long-cycle maize hybrids for extra growing periods or the earlier establishment of autumn-sown crops such as wheat, forage oats and Italian ryegrass for greater winter production.

For perennial crops such as wine grapes, the long-term effect of climate change might require a change in cultivar to varieties adapted to warmer and drier climates. However, the warmer climate might also open new areas suitable for wine grapes that were previously too cool.

Changes in future flowering dates might compress different grape-growing seasons, which will affect harvesting and access to labour.

Kiwifruit is likely to be affected by higher water demand in some areas and more variable demand in others.

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